Archive for July 3rd, 2010
Rick Santelli: Deflation Is The “Biggest Bogeyman In A Central Banker’s Closet”
Rick Santelli of CNBC spoke with King World News (via Zero Hedge) on a variety of different economic topics, but his most prescient comments were about the reality of deflation in the United States.
Santelli called deflation “the most disingenuous argument,” of the moment, saying that deflation is only a natural response to the end of a bubble. That end of a bubble, according to Santelli, causes deleveraging in the economy, as the market heals itself to reveal the reality of what prices should actually be. Santelli says that deflation is an argument economists use to position central banks and governments to spend more money to prop up the system.
Often on CNBC Santelli comes off as being over-political and under-analytical. In this interview, he makes clear his arguments, and while they are anti-government size, anti-government spending, and pro-tax cuts, they are cogent and not the typical for-T.V. bombast we usually get from him. The interview is certainly worth a listen.
Listen to the audio of the interview at King World News >
Join the conversation about this story »
Uber Bull Barton Biggs Throws In The Towel, Slashes Stock Holdings
Traxis Partners hedge fund manager Barton Biggs used to be a pretty vocal stock market bull, even as recently as early May.
Back then he said, “I’m betting the next move in the U.S. market is going to be up 15 to 20 percent,” and “I would just point out that the world is having a strong economic recovery, and so is Europe.”
His view has changed dramatically since. Explaining that he can change his mind ‘very quickly’, he’s significantly paired back his exposure to stocks.
“The economic numbers are very disappointing,” Biggs said. “Maybe the politicians respond. I’m worried that we could have not just a soft patch but a double dip which lasts two or three quarters and where nominal GDP is only up 2 or 3 percent, and that’ll have a big effect on profits. I’m afraid the market goes down another 10 or 15 percent if that happens.”
…
“I sold stocks pretty aggressively in the U.S., and we had a lot in tech,” Biggs said, referring to this week. “I’ve taken basically all of it out in the U.S., and we had a broader exposure to consumer stocks and just, in general, I’ve reduced my net long position by about 30 or 40 percentage points.
He added: “I’m not putting my money into anything. I’m raising cash.”
Join the conversation about this story »
Here’s How Lance Armstrong Cheated At The Tour De France (More From Floyd Landis)
To commemorate the opening day of the Tour de France, which Lance Armstrong says will be his last, Floyd Landis has provided more details about what he says was a coordinated cheating program used by Lance, Floyd, and other members of Lance’s team.
There were no fancy drugs involved, says Landis. Just repeated blood doping (removing blood, storing it in the fridge, and then transfusing it back into the body during the race) and the use of testosterone to aid recovery between races.
Lance Armstrong immediately dismissed Landis as a liar, just as he did when Landis published the first details in May. And there is no disputing that, at least in the past, Landis has been a liar.
Several unnamed former members of Lance’s teams say they saw the same doping that Floyd Landis describes. Several other members of the team say they didn’t see it. The current members of Lance’s team and others Floyd Landis named did not respond to request for comment.
If memory serves, the exact wording of the cheating denial Lance Armstrong usually uses is “I have never used performance-enhancing drugs.”
Perhaps importantly, the blood doping tactic Landis describes does not involve the use of performance-enhancing drugs (it merely boosts the body’s red-blood cell count through a transfusion of the rider’s own blood). It is still considered cheating, however.
Given the details in Landis’ latest account, the question that should be put to Armstrong is “have you ever had blood removed and stored and then transfused back into your body during the Tour de France?”
We suspect we know what Lance’s answer would be. Based on Landis’s account, however, we suspect it’s also the right question. And we hope Lance Armstrong answers that question honestly some day, if he hasn’t already.
Now please excuse us while we go root for Lance to win his 8th Tour de France.
Read all the details in this excellent article by Reed Albergotti and Vanessa O’Connell in the Wall Street Journal:
Nine days into the 2004 Tour de France, the U.S. Postal Service cycling team, led by Lance Armstrong, checked into a hotel near the village of Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat.
It was July 12, one of two rest days on the Tour—the rare breaks that give riders a chance to rest and gird themselves for the punishing climbs and sprints that make this the most depleting event in professional cycling.
According to one of the U.S. Postal team’s most prominent riders at the time, Floyd Landis, one room at the hotel had been set aside for a secret procedure.
Outside its door, Mr. Landis said, team staff members were stationed at each end of the hall to make sure nobody showed up unannounced. The riders were told before they went into the room not to talk when they got inside, he said. The smoke detectors had been taken down, he said, plastic was taped over the heater and the air-conditioning unit, and anything with a hole in it was taped over. The purpose, Mr. Landis figured, was to obscure the view of any hidden camera.
The riders on the team who participated in this procedure lay down on the bed, two at a time, Mr. Landis said, with a doctor on each side. Mr. Landis said he got a blood transfusion. He said he also saw Mr. Armstrong and two other team members, George Hincapie and José Luis Rubiera, taking blood. He said he didn’t see any other riders getting transfusions that day.
Join the conversation about this story »
See Also:
- Cyclist Floyd Landis Finally Admits To Doping Like A Drug Fiend, Says Lance Armstrong Did It, Too
- Cyclist Floyd Landis Accused Of Hacking Into Anti-Doping Lab Computer, Warrant Issued
- RadioShack Sponsoring Lance Armstrong’s New Cycling Team
The Shocking Media Habits Of 8-18 Year Olds
Kids are leading the world’s transition to digital media.
This is in part because kids aren’t afraid of technology, and in part because kids haven’t spent years getting use to anything else.
So if you want to get a sense of where the world’s media habits are headed, it makes sense to watch what kids are doing.
The Kaiser Family Foundation did just that in a comprehensive survey released early this year. Kaiser surveyed more than 2,000 families, and turned up all sorts of interesting information about the media habits of 8-18 year olds.
(Just go to the presentation >)
Some key points:
- Kids consume a heck of a lot of media–and more all the time. Basically, if kids are awake, they’re consuming media. And, increasingly, they’re consuming multiple forms of media at the same time.
- Kids’ print media consumption is tiny and falling.
- Kids’ digital media consumption is going through the roof.
No big surprise there. What is a surprise is how little parents seem to care about this. (Or, alternatively, how much parents encourage this media consumption by consuming a huge amount of media themselves.)
- In 2/3 of households, TVs are on during meals
- In 75% of households, TVs are on when no one is watching them.
- More than 70% of kids have TVs in their bedrooms
- Only 1/3 of households have media-consumption rules
No surprise, more media is consumed in households in which TVs are always on, where there are no media consumption rules, and where kids have TVs in their bedrooms.
And, no surprise, kids who consume the most media get the worst grades (but is this cause or effect?)
It’s a long presentation, but it’s awesome.
Flip through the presentation here >
Note: We first published this presentation this spring.
TV still rules…
Kids’ Media Use By Platform
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
More media all the time — now 10.5 hours a day
Kids’ Media Exposure Per Day
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
With 3 hours of media multi-tasking
Kids’ Media Exposure Per Day
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
What kids do when they’re media multitasking
Kids Media Multitasking
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Mobile: Who owns what
Kids Mobile Media Use
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Still 33 minutes a day gabbing on the cell phone
Kids Mobile Media Activity
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Again, TV still rules
Kids Media Use By Platform
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
But LIVE TV consumption is dropping (less couch-potato-ism!)
Kids TV Content Consumption
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
DVD consumption hanging steady (for now)
Kids TV Content Platform Breakdown
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
DVR consumption still rising (though surprisingly small)
Kids TV Content Platform Breakdown
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Online TV consumption growing (will soon replace DVR and DVD?)
Kids TV Content Platform Breakdown
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
iPod TV consumption also growing (another threat to DVR and DVD)
Kids TV Content Platform Breakdown
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
And, lastly, TV consumption on a cell phone (we’re betting that’s iPhone-based playback, not MobiTV)
Kids TV Content Platform Breakdown
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
So, total TV-content consumption is growing, but via different media
Kids TV Total Time
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Here’s how kids are consuming TV shows
Kids TV Time By Platform
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Moving on to music–it’s growing, too
Kids Listening To Music
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
But as with TV, music is being consumed via different media. So long, CDs…
Kids Listening To Music By Platform
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Next, computers: They’re taking over
Kids Computer Time
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
In part because almost all households now have Internet access
Kids Home Internet Access
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
More than half now have HIGH-SPEED Internet access
Kids High Speed Internet Access
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
A third of kids now have Internet access in their bedrooms
Kids Internet Access In Bedroom
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
And here’s what kids do on their computers (mostly social networking, games, and videos)
Kids Computer Use By Activity
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Kids now blow more than an hour a day on video games
Kids Video Game Use
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Video games are a boy thing
Kids Video Game Use By Gender
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Video games are shifting to handhelds (sorry, Sony)
Kids Video Game Use By Platform
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
And now for READING…
Kids Reading Time
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Books actually hanging in there (thanks to school?). Newspapers, not so much.
Kids Reading Type
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Only a quarter of kids glance at a newspaper every day (Sorry, Mr. Sulzberger)
Kids Reading Type Day
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Digital media is where it’s at
Kids Media Time By Platform By Age
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Basically, if kids are awake, they’re consuming media
Kids Media Time By Age
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
And this is interesting: Check out media consumption by race
Kids Media Time By Race
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
The race disparity has widened in recent years
Kids Media By Race Per Day
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
And now for the side effects of all that media consumption…
Kids Media Use And Grades
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
“Light” media consumers get good grades. So do “moderate” media consumers
Kids Media Use And Grades Moderate
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
But not “heavy” media consumers. (Is that cause or effect?)
Kids Media Use And Grades Heavy
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No surprise: Kids consume media while doing homework
Kids Media Multitasking
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
SHOCKING: In two-thirds of households, the TV is on during meals
TV on During Meals
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
In 75% of households, the TV is often just ON, even when no one’s watching it
TV On When No One Watching
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
EVEN MORE SHOCKING: 70% of kids have a TV in their bedroom (Are we parents brain dead?)
TV in Bedroom
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Only one-third of households have rules about media consumption
Kids Media Consumption Rules
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No sh*t, Sherlock: Kids watch more TV in households in which a TV is just on all the time
Kids TV On In Home
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No sh*t, Sherlock 2: Kids who have a TV in their bedroom watch a lot more TV
Kids TV Consumption If TV In Bedroom
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No sh*t, Sherlock 3: Kids who have no media consumption rules consume more media
Kids Media Consumption By Media Rules
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
No sh*t, Sherlock 4!
Parents Matter
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
You can download the whole presentation here >
Kaiser Presentation
Image: Kaiser Foundation
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
Join the conversation about this story »