Posts Tagged ‘consumer confidence index’
AFTER CHRISTMAS: Here’s What’s Coming In The Week Ahead
Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending Dec 23rd
Happy Holidays! This will be a light week for U.S. economic data. The Case-Shiller house price index will be released on Tuesday. Also the December Chicago PMI and three more regional Fed manufacturing surveys will released this week.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Christmas Day holiday.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. Although this is the October report, it is really a 3 month average of August, September and October.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in prices in October. The CoreLogic index showed a 1.3% decrease in October (NSA). I expect new post-bubble lows for the Case-Shiller indexes (seasonally adjusted).
10:00 AM: Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for December. The consensus is for an increase to 58.1 from 56.0 last month.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. The consensus is for the index to be at 5, up from 0 in November (above zero is expansion).
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for December. The index showed contraction in November with a reading of -5.1 (the only regional survey showing contraction).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak all year, although this doesn’t include cash buyers.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Last week was the lowest level for the 4-week average of weekly claims since early 2008.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 60.1 from 62.6 in November.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for the index to be at 6, up from 4 in November (above zero is expansion).
No releases scheduled.
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See Also:
- Why Oil Prices Are Killing the Economy
- RAIL: This Crucial Economic Indicator Just Refuses To Go Negative
- Guess Which Country Has The Best Paid Manufacturing Workers
A Look At People’s REAL Holiday Shopping Plan
Yesterday Gallup released its latest survey on holiday spending plans. The title nicely summarizes their findings: “Consumers’ Holiday Spending Intentions Perk Up in November.”
The Gallup chart accompanying the piece shows the spending estimates for the same week all the way back to 1999. Of course, over the 13-year time frame, the value of the dollar has shrunk considerably. If you adjust for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, that November 1999 dollar is worth about 74 cents today. So let’s compare the Gallup nominal dollar spending plans with their “real” values, chained in November 1999 dollars.
Click for a larger version at the site
The adjacent table helps to quantify the real spending plans of the participants in the latest survey. Today’s holiday spenders obviously do not envision partying like it’s 1999 (to borrow a Prince lyric). The latest spending plans are about 34% below the average amount reported in the equivalent 1999 survey. In fact, the table gives us crude but convincing snapshot of trend consumer sentiment since the turn of the century. The contour of the inflation-adjusted series in the chart below corresponds rather closely with the broader snapshots of consumer sentiment:
Based on their historical data, Gallup explains that “The 7% increase in Americans’ 2011 November Christmas spending forecast compared with last year’s — from $714 to $764 — points to a modest increase in 2011 holiday retail sales, perhaps on the order of 3% to 4%.”
We’ll take a look at retail sales after the holiday season to see if Gallup’s observation holds true this time around.
This post originally appeared on Advisor Perspectives.
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See Also:
- Retail Sales: ‘Real’ Consumers Are In A Very Slow Recovery
- MARK CUBAN: There’s Only One Reason Why CEOs Want Lower Taxes
- AMERICA’S BEST COLLEGES: Last Chance To Vote In Our Survey
US consumer spending up in September
Official figures have revealed consumer spending in the US improved last month.
According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.6% to $68.7 billion (£42.7 billion) in September and follows a 0.2% rise in August.
The figures will be a welcome boost for the economy which looked set to be heading towards a double dip recession just a few weeks ago.
Consumer spending is closely monitored as it accounts for more than two-thirds of economic output.
However, personal incomes rose just 0.1% in the month after a 0.1% gain in August, the Commerce Department said.
Income growth is being limited by stubbornly high unemployment, with a jobless rate that has been above the 9% mark for five consecutive months.
The figures come just a few days after the Commerce Department revealed the world’s largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year in the three months to the end of September.
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of this year, which was in line with forecasts but was a considerable improvement on the 1.3% growth reported for the second quarter.
However, despite both sets of encouraging figures, it appears that consumers are still wary about the future direction of the economy.
Last week, the Conference Board revealed US consumer confidence slumped in October.
The closely-monitored Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board dived to 39.8 this month from September’s reading of 46.4.
Not only was the reading less than forecasts of a level of 46.0, it was the lowest since March 2009, when the US was in recession.
The economic recovery in the US has so far been sluggish in the face of rising unemployment and a depressed housing market.
US economic growth rises in Q3
The world’s largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year in the three months to the end of September, official figures revealed today.
According to the Commerce Department, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of this year.
The figure was in line with forecasts but was a considerable improvement on the 1.3% growth reported for the second quarter.
Today’s figures will be a welcome boost for the economy which looked set to be heading towards a double dip recession just a few weeks ago.
The strong performance was due to a rise in consumer and business investment spending, as well as international trade.
Consumer spending was the strongest since the fourth quarter of last year, while business spending was the fastest in over a year.
Consumer spending is closely monitored as it accounts for more than two-thirds of economic output.
However, despite today’s encouraging figures, it appears that consumers are still wary about the future direction of the economy.
Earlier this week, the Conference Board revealed US consumer confidence slumped in October.
The closely-monitored Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board dived to 39.8 this month from September’s reading of 46.4.
Not only was the reading less than forecasts of a level of 46.0, it was the lowest since March 2009, when the US was in recession.
The economic recovery in the US has so far been sluggish in the face of higher unemployment and a depressed housing market.
Today, however, a separate report from the Labor Department revealed new claims for state unemployment benefits declined by 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 402,000 – suggesting a steady improvement in the labour market.
In addition, yesterday a report suggested house prices were stabilising.
US consumer confidence slumps in October
US consumer confidence slumped in October, the Conference Board has reported.
The closely-monitored Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board dived to 39.8 this month from September’s reading of 46.4.
Not only was the reading less than forecasts of a level of 46.0, it was the lowest since March 2009, when the US was in recession.
Furthermore, the index remains far away from the 90 points required to show that the world’s largest economy is on solid footing.
Since the index commenced in 1967, the average reading has been 95.6.
The index hit a record high of 144.7 in 2000, while its all-time low was 25.3 in February 2009, when the country was in the midst of recession.
Commenting on the figures, Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Centre said: “Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession.
“Consumer expectations, which had improved in September, gave back all of the gain and then some, as concerns about business conditions, the labor market and income prospects increased,” she added.
Meanwhile, the present situation index, a measure of consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, fell for the sixth month in a row to 26.3 from a revised 33.3 in September.
The report also showed that households are concerned about future incomes – raising doubt over spending – something which is closely monitored as it accounts for more than two-thirds of economic output.
The economic recovery in the US remains sluggish in the face of higher unemployment and a depressed housing market.
In other news this week, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index showed that single-family house prices rose by just 0.2% in August on a monthly basis, while prices were 3.8% lower when compared with August 2010.