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A relatively busy week continues on Thursday, as a number of S&P 500 corporates report earnings and data releases hit the street.

Already, the Federal Open Markets Committee has announced it sees unemployment declining further in 2012, but that the economy would grow slower than earlier forecast. 

Here’s what you need to know.

• Singapore will kick off the day with industrial production when the clock strikes midnight. Economists polled by Bloomberg see a 6.40% year-on-year gain for December, reversing a 9.60% decline in November.
• Germany and France will start a series of economic releases in Europe at 2:00 a.m. and 2:45 a.m. EST, respectively. Expectations are for consumer confidence in both countries to remain flat.  
• Attention then shifts to Sweden and Denmark. Forecasts are for both countries to report an increasing unemployment rate. Economists polled by Bloomberg see the Swedish and Danish jobless rates hitting 7.00% and 6.70%, respectively. 
• At 4:00 a.m. EST Italy will report consumer confidence, with economists polled by Bloomberg seeing the headline figure increasing to 92.0 from 91.6. Economists polled by ForexTV have a slightly different opinion, and see the index declining to 89.5.
• U.K. CBI retail sales are scheduled for 6:00 a.m. EST, with forecasts for the index to contract to -6 from 9. The CBI survey measures sales representing roughly 40% of the total U.K. retail industry.
• North American announcements start at 8:30 a.m. EST with Chicago Federal Reserve activity, durable goods orders and initial claims. Economists predict durable goods excluding transport will increase 0.9%, against a 0.3% gain in November. Initial claims are seen losing momentum and jumping to 370,000, up 18,000 from last week’s reading.
• Mexican retail sales are set for release at 9:00 a.m. EST. Forecasts put the November reading at 5.30% growth, accelerating from 3.00%.
• Later in the day, the Census will announce new home sales in the U.S., before the Kansas City Federal Reserve announces activity in the region at 11:00 a.m. EST. Home sales are seen increasing by 6,000 units to 321,000 in December.

U.S. corporates reporting quarterly results on Thursday include AT&T, Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin and Starbucks. Below, a roundup of tomorrow’s big announcers.

Time Warner Cable (TWC): $1.21
Airgas (ARG): $0.97
Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN): $0.51
Monster Worldwide (MWW): $0.12
Lockheed Martin (LMT): $1.94
Janus Capital Group (JNS): $0.15
Colgate-Palmolive (CL): $1.30
Consol Energy (CNX): $0.63
Raytheon (RTN): $1.34
Under Armour (UA): $0.61
Caterpillar (CAT): $1.73
Sherwin-Williams (SHW): $0.83
AT&T (T): $0.43
VeriSign (VRSN): $0.41
KLA-Tencor (KLAC): $0.66
Amgen (AMGN): $1.23
Juniper Networks (JNPR): $0.28
Starbucks (SBUX): $0.48
3M (MMM): $1.31
JetBlue Airways (JBLU): $0.03
Celgene (CELG): $1.05
United Continental Holdings (UAL): $0.12
Motorola Mobility (MMI): $0.22
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): $0.55
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN): -$0.97
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT): $0.58
DeVry (DV): $1.01

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See Also:

• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Tuesday, January 24
• Morgan Stanley Is Still Massively Exposed To European Sovereigns
• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Friday, January 20

The Federal Open Market Committee is due to come out with its latest interest rate decision in just a few moments.

Even though investors are expecting the Committee to hold rates steady at an incredibly low 0.25%, there’s still some excitement in the air. That enthusiasm is all about the Fed’s new federal funds rate projections, which could give investors a better idea of how to trade long-term Treasury securities.

This is generally thought to be an accommodative policy measure right now, since transparency would allow investors to gauge how long the Fed will hold down rates in the future. Citigroup synopsizes the bullishness that has been accompanying this in a note out yesterday:

We think that market levels do not fully reflect the anticipated extension of Fed guidance that we expect later this week. Our expectation is that the majority of Fed members will indicate that they expect the first hike in 2014. Further guidance, (through the statement, the press conference or stated year-end 2014 expectations) could show that the first hike is expected to be well into 2014. We think that market levels are more consistent with guidance being shifted to late-2013 or mid-2014 at the latest.

We’ll have the statement right here when it comes out. Follow Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15 PM ET live on Money Game >

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See Also:

• VINCENT REINHART: The Fed’s New Communication Policy Will Weaken Its Ability To Signal Commitment On Rates
• FEDERAL RESERVE: Check Out The New Charts We’ll Use To Present Our Outlook For The Target Fed Funds Rate
• Here’s Why Analysts Don’t See The Fed Raising Interest Rates Before 2014

The more experts think about the Fed’s new more transparent communication policy, the more they seem to hate it.

As we recently reported, the Fed will starting including FOMC voting members’ views on the appropriate monetary policy underlying their economic projections in its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

This increased transparency may not be as obviously positive as one might assume.

“The Fed’s clarification of its SEP disclosure on Friday was itself somewhat unclear,” wrote Vincent Reinhart, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist.  (Some may know him better as Mr. Carmen Reinhart).

Reinhart argues the new policy sacrifices clarity for democracy.  Specifically, he thinks that the new policy will weaken the Fed’s ability to send a firm signal about where rates are heading.

We already know how specific Fed members voted, which reveals plenty about the Fed officials’ “disputatious” nature.  However, publishing actual policy assumptions will only muddy the public’s understanding of policy intent, at least initially.

The Fed has traded a policy of signaling commitment on rates through a formal vote for an arithmetic compilation of opinions about the path of policy.  True, this will be an informed set of opinions coming from the highest Fed officials, but the Fed will now have a more flexible, but weaker, commitment device.  To the extent that the new presentation draws attention to minority views, that commitment value will be weakened even more.

SEE ALSO: FEDERAL RESERVE: Check Out The New Charts We’ll Use To Present Our Outlook For The Target Fed Funds Rate >

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See Also:

• Here’s Why Analysts Don’t See The Fed Raising Interest Rates Before 2014
• All Of Last Year’s FOMC Dissenters Lost Their Voting Rights
• FEDERAL RESERVE: Check Out The New Charts We’ll Use To Present Our Outlook For The Target Fed Funds Rate

The Council of the European Union announced this morning that it could suspend all cohesion fund payments to Hungary, as structural economic issues prevent it from meeting debt-to-GDP requirements of 3%.

Fund payments for the entire region, which reimburse governments for programs that boost economic activity and social cohesion, were expected to total some €45.1 billion in 2012.

“Hungary cannot face sanctions under the excessive deficit procedure as it is not a member of the euro area,” the Council said in a statement. “But for beneficiaries of the EU’s cohesion fund, such as Hungary, failure to comply with the Council’s recommendations can lead to the suspension of cohesion fund commitments.”

The country has been under excessive deficit procedure since the middle of 2004, when the EU first said it would require Hungary hit its target by 2008. However, the economic downturn predicated an emergency assistance package of €20 billion and additional time to meet the 3% threshold. 

The Council set the end of 2011 as the date the country had to bring its deficit in line.

Including one-time items linked to the movement of pensions from the private sector to the state, the government in Budapest posted a 3.6% surplus for the year. However, excluding the charge, the deficit-to-GDP rate would have hit 6%.

The accord comes as Hungary remains locked in debate with the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank over a new law that could decrease the the country’s central bank’s independence. 

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See Also:

• ROUBINI AND BREMMER: The Fate Of Global Growth Depends On US-China Relations
• S&P Affirms The European Union’s AAA Rating, Outlook Negative
• FEDERAL RESERVE: Check Out The New Charts We’ll Use To Present Our Outlook For The Target Fed Funds Rate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just slashed its estimates for global growth, reports Bloomberg.

According to its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.  This compares to its previous forecast of 4% and 4.5%, respectively.

The organization now expects the euro area to contract 0.5%, versus a previous call for 1.1% expansion.

Devloping economies are expected to grow 5.4%, versus a previous estimate of 6.1%.  China and India are expected to grow 8.2% and 7.0%, respectively, down from a previous estimate of 9.0% and 7.5%.

The good news: U.S. growth estimates were unchanged at 1.8%.

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See Also:

• This Quiet American City Has The Highest Per-Capita GDP In The World
• S&P Affirms The European Union’s AAA Rating, Outlook Negative
• FEDERAL RESERVE: Check Out The New Charts We’ll Use To Present Our Outlook For The Target Fed Funds Rate