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Posts Tagged ‘retail sales’

Monthly reports came in generally weakly positive. Retail sales were up 0.4% but only 0.2% after inflation. Industrial production was flat and capacity utilization slightly negative for January, but were revised strongly upward for December. Producer prices rose a slight 0.1% and consumer prices 0.2% in January. The YoY comparisons in inflation are all falling. The best news was that housing starts and permits, while flat on a monthly basis, remain at 3 year highs for the third month in a row.

The weekly high frequency data continued positive, with the significant exceptions of withholding tax collections (about which I’m not concerned) and energy prices (about which I very much amconcerned).

Employment related indicators were generally positive:

The Department of Labor reported that Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 348,000, the lowest report in close to 4 years. The four week average declined by 1000 to 365,250. This too is the lowest reading since mid-2008.

The American Staffing Association Index fell by 1 to 86 last week. It is now right in between its levels of 2011 and 2007, higher than the former and below the latter.

The Daily Treasury Statement showed that for the first 12 reporting days of February, $95.6 B was collected vs. $90.7 one year ago, a gain of over 5%. For the last 20 reporting days, $145.2 B was collected vs. $145.6 B a year ago, a decline of -0.3%. Since the beginning of this year, however, collections have been $254.3 B vs. $243.6 B for the equivalent period last year, a gain of over 4%. In other words, we had a brief rough patch in late January that does not appear to in any way to have impacted the longer term trend.

Housing reports were slightly negative:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association reported that The Refinance Index increased +0.8% from the previous week, to its highest level in over half a year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased -8.4% from the prior week, and was -7.6% lower YoY. The purchase index is close to the bottom of its 21 month overall flat range.

YoY weekly median asking house prices from 54 metropolitan areas at Housing Tracker were positive, up +4.0%. This is the first week this number did not make a new positive record, as it is off -0.2% from last week. Still this series turned positive over two months ago and has remained so since.

Sales and transportation were weakly positive:

The ICSC reported that same store sales for the week ending February 11 were off -2.2% w/w, but increased 2.8% YoY. Shoppertrak reported +4.4% YoY gains. Johnson Redbook reported a 2.7% YoY gain. The ICSC and Johnson Redbook reports are weak relative to most reports in the last 12 months.

The American Association of Railroads reported reported that for the week ending February 11, 2012, 279,501 carloads wer originated, up 1.7% YoY. Intermodal loads were 227,207, -0.4% YoY. Total traffic was 3700 carloads above last year, or +0.7%.

Money supply was flat but Credit spreads were positive:

M1 was flat last week, and was up a weak +0.5% month over month. It remained up 18.8% YoY, so Real M1 is up 15.9%. YoY. M2 fell -0.1% week over week, but was also up weakly +0.3% month over month. It was up 10.0 YoY, so Real M2 was up 7.1%. In short, real money supply indicators continue strongly positive on a YoY basis.

Weekly BAA commercial bond rates increased .04% to 5.17%. Yields on 10 year treasury bonds rose .11% to 1.99%. The credit spread between the two, which had a 52 week maximum difference in October but once again tightened this past week.

Gasoline usage in particular continues to be much lower YoY:

Oil rose about $4.50 this week to close at $103.24 a barrel. Gas at the pump rose another $.04 to $3.52. Both of these are back above the point where they can be expected to exert a constricting influence on the economy. Gasoline usage, at 8167 M gallons vs. 8810 M a year ago, was off -7.3%. The 4 week moving average is off -6.4%. The YoY comparisons went negative last March, and have been substantially so since July. This week’s 4 week average was one of the biggest differences since then

Now let’s turn to new high frequency indicators designed to track the global slowdown/recession:

The TED spread is at 0.420 down from 0.425 week over week. This index is back below its 2010 peak, and has declined from its 3 year peak of 7 weeks ago. The one month LIBOR is at 0.245, down .005 from one week ago. It is well below its 12 month peak set 6 weeks ago, remains below its 2010 peak, and ihas now completely returned to its typical background reading of the last 3 years.

The Baltic Dry Index at 717 was up slightly from 715 one week ago, and up 67 from its 52 week low of 2 weeks ago, although still well off its October 52 week high of 2173 (please note that even so this is nothing even remotely close to its decline during the Great Recession. This type of decline has happened 4 times since March 2009 without triggering any “double dip.”). The Harpex Shipping Index declined 11 to 379 in the last week, setting a new 52 week low. Please remember that these two indexes are influenced by supply as well as demand, and have generally been in a secular decline due to oversupply of ships for over half a decade. The Harpex index concentrates on container ships, and led at recent tops and lagged at troughs. The BDI concentrates on bulk shipments such as coal and grain, and lagged more at the top but turned up first at the 2009 trough.

Finally, once again the Shadow Weekly Leading Index accurately foretold a decrease in ECRI’s WLI, although a considerably larger one than was reported. This helps indicate that commodity prices and credit spreads are given a stronger weighting in the WLI than are purchase mortgage applications. We already have the value for 3 of its components, including the S&P 500, which rose from 1342.64 to 1361.23, a gain of about 1.5% for the week. The Dow Jones Bond Index decreased .41 to 116.66. The JoC-ECRI industrial metals index rose from 126.20 to 128.89, just slightly below a 4 month high. The first is slightly positive, the second slightly negative, but commodity prices a strong positive for the calculation of ECRI’s weekly leading index next Friday.

Why I’m especially concerned about the Oil choke collar.Friend of the blog Fladem a couple of days ago wrote that:

There is evidence that oil over the last year has acted as almost a governor on the economy. As soon as the economy looks like it is about to take off, oil prices get high enough to limit the recovery. Than, we it looks like it is going to contract, the oil price goes down.

That is exactly what I mean by the “Oil choke collar.” We saw this last year, and I believe we are starting to see it again now. Last year a recovery that appeared to be approaching escape velocity suddenly ground to a halt in the first quarter due mainly to a surge in energy prices (with an assist from the Japanese earthquake). Initial jobless claims, which had dropped under 400,000 for the first time since 2008, reversed. Last year there was no double dip as consumer spending (fueled by savings accumulated during the recession) remained very positive. There is not so much of a cushion now. Weekly retail sales numbers will probably assume an increased importance among the indicators.

Have a nice weekend.

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See Also:

• Why Economic Growth Will Continue To Disappoint In 2012
• Administration Officials Don’t Really Want The Housing Program To Work
• US Workers Are Toiling Harder And Getting Paid Less Than Ever

January retail sales just came out, and it was kind of a strange report.

Headline retail sales for January came in at just 0.4%, well below the 0.8% growth that analysts had expected.

But retail sales excluding autos beat nicely (0.7% vs. the 0.5% that was expected). So obviously the weakness came form the auto part of the report.

This chart of sequential growth by category confirms that auto sales were the sore thumb sticking out.

And yet…

This data runs contra to other January data.

According to Commerce Department data, auto sales gained in January over December.

Other measures also indicate robust January car sales.

Here’s a chart of auto shipments via rail put on Twitter by @bourbon_meyer.

Does anyone have a good guess for what’s amiss here?

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See Also:

• The 15 Most Dominant Retailers In The World
• Some Big Economic News Is Coming Out Today
• January Retail Sales Come In Weird And Mixed

UPDATE;

Kind of a weird report.

Headline retail sales grew 0.4%, which was half the rate that analysts had expected.

On the other hand, retail sales ex autos grew at 0.7%, which is above what was expected.

There were really sharp negative downward revisions, with December core retail sales going from -0.2% to -0.5%.

Strange all around.

Here are some charts from the report.

 

Here’s the one big economic report of the day: Retail sales for January.

Finally, we’re starting to get some nice 2012 data.

Analysts expect headline growth of 0.8% and core sales (ex-auto and gas) of 0.5%.

Remember, December was weak but analysts are hopeful about the economy, so we shall see at 8:30 AM ET where things stand now.

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See Also:

• The 15 Most Dominant Retailers In The World
• Some Big Economic News Is Coming Out Today
• Something Doesn’t Make Sense About That Retail Sales Report

Tuesday continues a busy earnings week, while data streams out of Asia and Europe. Nonetheless it will be a relatively quiet day, as Coca-Cola and Walt Disney report. There are no major economic reports scheduled for release in the U.S., although December consumer credit will be announced.

Here’s what you need to know.

• The U.K. starts the day off early with retail sales at 7:01 p.m. EST on Monday evening. Sales are seen declining 0.8 percent in January, after a 2.2 percent gain the month before. 
• Philippine CPI will be announced at 8:00 p.m. EST, with expectations for the index to show 0.5 percent increases in December.
• Czech unemployment is out at 3:00 a.m. EST, with economists polled by Bloomberg expecting the jobless rate to jump 50 basis points to 9.1 percent for January.
• At the same time, industrial production for both Hungary and Denmark will be announced.  Output is seen expanding by 9.3 percent year-on-year in Hungary, while Denmark sees 0.3 percent growth sequentially for December. Also at 3:00 a.m. EST, Taiwan will announce total exports for January. Exports are seen falling 17.0 percent from year ago levels.
• Industrial production continues to roll out over the next several hours in Europe. At 4:00 a.m. EST Norway is expected to announce production grew by a slower rate than in November, at 0.1 percent. Estimates are not yet available for Portugal production, which last grew by 0.5 percent.
• Europe’s largest economy, Germany, will announce industrial production at 6:00 a.m. EST. The country is expected to see a reversal in production, with no growth in December after a 0.6 percent contraction in November.
• At 8:30 a.m. EST, North American gets into the fray when Canada announces new building permits. Permits are expected to increase 1.0 percent in December, after a 3.6 percent decline in November. 
• U.S. announcements start at 10:00 a.m. EST., with JOLTs Job Openings and economic sentiment. Job openings are seen expanding to 3.25 million from 3.16 million. Meanwhile, optimism as measured by Investor’s Business Daily is seen jumping to 48.6 from 47.5. A level below 50 indicates pessimism. 
• Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will testify at 10:00 a.m. EST on the state of the economy. Find coverage of his testimony live on Money Game. 
• Last on the agenda is consumer credit in the U.S. at 3:00 p.m. EST. Economists polled by Bloomberg see credit expanding by $7 billion, a decline from last month’s surprise $20.3 billion jump. 

U.S. corporates reporting quarterly results on Tuesday include names like Coca-Cola and Walt Disney. Below, a roundup of tomorrow’s big announcers.

Coca-Cola (KO): $0.77
AGCO (AGCO): $1.33
Western Union (WU): $0.40
CBRE Group (CBG): $0.44
Walt Disney (DIS): $0.71
DuPont Fabros Technology (DFT): $0.37
OpenTable (OPEN): $0.30
Panera Bread (PNRA): $1.42
Ralcorp Holdings (RAH): $1.35
Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG): $0.60

Consensus estimates provided by Bloomberg. 

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See Also:

• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Monday, February 6, 2012
• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Wednesday, February 1, 2012
• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Friday, February 3, 2012

A relatively busy week continues on Thursday, as a number of S&P 500 corporates report earnings and data releases hit the street.

Already, the Federal Open Markets Committee has announced it sees unemployment declining further in 2012, but that the economy would grow slower than earlier forecast. 

Here’s what you need to know.

• Singapore will kick off the day with industrial production when the clock strikes midnight. Economists polled by Bloomberg see a 6.40% year-on-year gain for December, reversing a 9.60% decline in November.
• Germany and France will start a series of economic releases in Europe at 2:00 a.m. and 2:45 a.m. EST, respectively. Expectations are for consumer confidence in both countries to remain flat.  
• Attention then shifts to Sweden and Denmark. Forecasts are for both countries to report an increasing unemployment rate. Economists polled by Bloomberg see the Swedish and Danish jobless rates hitting 7.00% and 6.70%, respectively. 
• At 4:00 a.m. EST Italy will report consumer confidence, with economists polled by Bloomberg seeing the headline figure increasing to 92.0 from 91.6. Economists polled by ForexTV have a slightly different opinion, and see the index declining to 89.5.
• U.K. CBI retail sales are scheduled for 6:00 a.m. EST, with forecasts for the index to contract to -6 from 9. The CBI survey measures sales representing roughly 40% of the total U.K. retail industry.
• North American announcements start at 8:30 a.m. EST with Chicago Federal Reserve activity, durable goods orders and initial claims. Economists predict durable goods excluding transport will increase 0.9%, against a 0.3% gain in November. Initial claims are seen losing momentum and jumping to 370,000, up 18,000 from last week’s reading.
• Mexican retail sales are set for release at 9:00 a.m. EST. Forecasts put the November reading at 5.30% growth, accelerating from 3.00%.
• Later in the day, the Census will announce new home sales in the U.S., before the Kansas City Federal Reserve announces activity in the region at 11:00 a.m. EST. Home sales are seen increasing by 6,000 units to 321,000 in December.

U.S. corporates reporting quarterly results on Thursday include AT&T, Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin and Starbucks. Below, a roundup of tomorrow’s big announcers.

Time Warner Cable (TWC): $1.21
Airgas (ARG): $0.97
Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN): $0.51
Monster Worldwide (MWW): $0.12
Lockheed Martin (LMT): $1.94
Janus Capital Group (JNS): $0.15
Colgate-Palmolive (CL): $1.30
Consol Energy (CNX): $0.63
Raytheon (RTN): $1.34
Under Armour (UA): $0.61
Caterpillar (CAT): $1.73
Sherwin-Williams (SHW): $0.83
AT&T (T): $0.43
VeriSign (VRSN): $0.41
KLA-Tencor (KLAC): $0.66
Amgen (AMGN): $1.23
Juniper Networks (JNPR): $0.28
Starbucks (SBUX): $0.48
3M (MMM): $1.31
JetBlue Airways (JBLU): $0.03
Celgene (CELG): $1.05
United Continental Holdings (UAL): $0.12
Motorola Mobility (MMI): $0.22
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): $0.55
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN): -$0.97
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT): $0.58
DeVry (DV): $1.01

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See Also:

• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Tuesday, January 24
• Morgan Stanley Is Still Massively Exposed To European Sovereigns
• Here Are The Key Market Moving Events For Friday, January 20