Finance Matters

Posts Tagged ‘surprise’

No surprise: Following the weak jobs data on Friday (when markets were closed for Good Friday) markets are responding by diving.

The Nikkei is off 1.4%.

Futures are down sharply from their Thursday close.

From FinViz:

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We’ve been talking about and looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index a lot lately, since it’s on the verge of going negative, just as the market looks toppy.

Remember, the Citi Economic Surprise Index is an index that tries to measure the economic data vs. consensus expectations.

Over the last few years the index has moved roughly in line with the market, but as we pointed out recently, if you go back over the last 10 years, the relationship is far less clear.

But anyway, just how close is the index tracking with the market these days?

Check out this awesome chart from Reuters (via PragCap), which shows the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index vs. the 3-month change in the S&P vs. Bonds.

The relationship looks remarkably tight going back a few years… and it also looks like the market is due for a tumble.

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See Also:

• Here’s The Truth About The Plunging Citi Economic Surprise Index
• Nomura Explains What Initial Jobless Claims Are Really Saying About The Jobs Market
• CHART OF THE DAY: A Simple Stock Trade That Continues To Be A Monster

It’s a sunny Saturday here in Portland, our first really spring-like day all year. Everyone’s out enjoying the sun. But not me. I’m inside looking at the submissions for this year’s Get Rich Slowly video contest. I’m pleased with the ones I’ve seen so far. You guys are awesome!

For instance, this submission from Cori Rubio is outstanding. Probably the best-filmed entry in the three years we’ve been running this contest. (No surprise since Cori is a film student.)

Also, I love this video from Travis Settineri describing how passion and hard work can lead to personal success. Yes, this is another sharp-looking video, but more than that, I’m a huge believer in the message Travis is sharing. It’s how I became successful, too.

But your video doesn’t neet professional production values to be awesome. I really like this success story from Kim K. It’s packed with tips, some of which I’ve never heard before.

There are many other great submissions already. But it’s not too late to enter! There’s still more than a week remaining before this contest is over. That means you’ve got this weekend and next to craft a prize-winning video.

As a reminder:

• Entries are accepted between today and April 15th.
• You can enter one two-minute video in each of two categories: Success Stories and Personal Finance Tips.
• The winner of each category will receive $500. Runners-up will receive books.
• As always, if you have a website and tell us about it, you’re eligible for the $500 Website Award.

The contest is easy to enter: Simply create a video of less than two minutes, upload it to YouTube, and then let us know about it. I’m the sole judge, and I’ll pick my favorite videos and announce winners by May 1st.

You can share a video from your own YouTube account or upload the video through the Get Rich Slowly contest page, but in both cases you’ll need a YouTube account. For complete info, check out the 2012 Get Rich Slowly video contest homepage. Good luck, everyone, and have fun.

And now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go outside and enjoy this April sunshine while it lasts…

We just mentioned the surprise trade deficit posted by Australia.

Here’s an even more interesting stat. Gold sales collapsed.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $64m (5%) to $1,329m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $1,070m (56%) to $856m.

Non-monetary gold, btw, just means gold not held by monetary authorities.

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See Also:

• Gold Instantly Spikes Lower Thanks To Bernanke
• Gold And Silver Are Getting Smashed Today
• Gold Got Crushed Today, And Everyone’s Trying To Figure Out Why

First Japan goes from net exporter to posting trade deficits. And now… Australia.

Here’s the report: In January, the country posted a seasonally adjusted A$673 million deficit vs. expectations of a surplus of A$ 1.5 billion, according to Dow Jones.

The Aussie dollar is instantly falling on the news.

We’d caution that pretty much all January stats are a little bit suspect due to the timing of the Chinese New Year. But still. It’s a surprise, and perhaps worrisome.

This one-year chart does show that a deficit happened last year, although not as deep.

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See Also:

• Asian Stocks Are Mixed After Chinese PMI Rises And Japanese Capital Spending Jumps
• The Biggest China Bull In The World Explains Why A Hard Landing Doesn’t Scare Him
• Niels Jensen On The Coming ‘Protein Bomb’ And The Incredible Case For Buying Farmland